Pavlov Steam Revenue & Sales Estimates

Based on our analysis using the Boxleiter method, we estimate Pavlov's total gross revenue on Steam at approximately $22,601,138.

This estimate comes with a confidence range:

• Conservative estimate (x20): $15,067,426
• Calibrated midpoint (x30): $22,601,138
• Optimistic estimate (x60): $45,202,277

The actual revenue may vary due to regional pricing, seasonal discounts, and refund rates.

With 39,672 Steam reviews and a 90% positive rating, we estimate Pavlov has sold between 793,440 and 2,380,320 copies, with a best estimate of 1,190,160.

This is based on the Boxleiter method, which uses the observation that roughly 1 in every 20 to 60 buyers leaves a Steam review. For the midpoint we do not assume a universal 30x value; we use a calibrated multiplier of x30 that adjusts for the title's age, price tier, genre, and review profile.

After Steam's tiered platform fee of effectively 27.2%, Vankrupt Games keeps an estimated $16,450,854 from Pavlov's gross revenue of $22,601,138.

Here's the breakdown:

• Gross Revenue: $22,601,138
• Steam's Fee (27.2%): -$6,150,285
• Developer Revenue: $16,450,854

Note: This doesn't account for publisher shares, taxes, or development costs.

Steam uses a tiered revenue sharing model that reduces the platform's cut as a game earns more:

• First $10 million: 30% to Steam, 70% to developer
• $10M to $50M: 25% to Steam, 75% to developer
• Above $50M: 20% to Steam, 80% to developer

For Pavlov, with an estimated gross revenue of $22,601,138, this results in an effective rate of 27.2%. Steam keeps approximately $6,150,285 and Vankrupt Games receives $16,450,854.

These estimates use the Boxleiter method, a widely-used industry approach that estimates game sales from the number of Steam reviews.

Factors that affect accuracy:

• Review-to-purchase ratio varies by genre
• Discount history - games with frequent deep sales may have higher ratios
• Regional pricing - different prices in different markets are not captured
• Refunds - Steam's return policy means some counted sales were refunded
• Bundled sales - keys sold through third-party bundles may not generate reviews

We provide a confidence range ($15,067,426 to $45,202,277) to reflect this uncertainty. For the best estimate we combine the Boxleiter range with a calibrated midpoint (x30) and a calibrated ASP of $19.

If Pavlov generated the same gross revenue on the Epic Games Store, Vankrupt Games would keep approximately $20,009,002 - that's $3,558,148 more than on Steam.

At this revenue level, Epic's concrete platform fee would be $2,592,137. Epic charges 0% on the first $1 million in annual per-app revenue and then 12% on the remaining amount. On GOG (30% cut), the developer would earn approximately $15,820,797.

Note: This is a hypothetical comparison. Actual sales volumes differ significantly between platforms, and Steam's larger user base typically drives substantially higher sales.

According to SteamSpy data, players spend an average of 17.8 hours in Pavlov, with a median playtime of 5.2 hours. The large gap between average and median suggests a dedicated core community playing well beyond the typical player.