Half-Life 2: Episode One Steam Revenue & Sales Estimates

Based on our analysis using the Boxleiter method, we estimate Half-Life 2: Episode One's total gross revenue on Steam at approximately $10,081,210.

This estimate comes with a confidence range:

• Conservative estimate (x20): $6,109,824
• Calibrated midpoint (x33): $10,081,210
• Optimistic estimate (x60): $18,329,472

The actual revenue may vary due to regional pricing, seasonal discounts, and refund rates.

With 31,822 Steam reviews and a 96% positive rating, we estimate Half-Life 2: Episode One has sold between 636,440 and 1,909,320 copies, with a best estimate of 1,050,126.

This is based on the Boxleiter method, which uses the observation that roughly 1 in every 20 to 60 buyers leaves a Steam review. For the midpoint we do not assume a universal 30x value; we use a calibrated multiplier of x33 that adjusts for the title's age, price tier, genre, and review profile.

After Steam's tiered platform fee of effectively 30.0%, Valve keeps an estimated $7,060,907 from Half-Life 2: Episode One's gross revenue of $10,081,210.

Here's the breakdown:

• Gross Revenue: $10,081,210
• Steam's Fee (30.0%): -$3,020,302
• Developer Revenue: $7,060,907

Note: This doesn't account for publisher shares, taxes, or development costs.

Steam uses a tiered revenue sharing model that reduces the platform's cut as a game earns more:

• First $10 million: 30% to Steam, 70% to developer
• $10M to $50M: 25% to Steam, 75% to developer
• Above $50M: 20% to Steam, 80% to developer

For Half-Life 2: Episode One, with an estimated gross revenue of $10,081,210, this results in an effective rate of 30.0%. Steam keeps approximately $3,020,302 and Valve receives $7,060,907.

These estimates use the Boxleiter method, a widely-used industry approach that estimates game sales from the number of Steam reviews.

Factors that affect accuracy:

• Review-to-purchase ratio varies by genre
• Discount history - games with frequent deep sales may have higher ratios
• Regional pricing - different prices in different markets are not captured
• Refunds - Steam's return policy means some counted sales were refunded
• Bundled sales - keys sold through third-party bundles may not generate reviews

We provide a confidence range ($6,109,824 to $18,329,472) to reflect this uncertainty. For the best estimate we combine the Boxleiter range with a calibrated midpoint (x33) and a calibrated ASP of $10.

If Half-Life 2: Episode One generated the same gross revenue on the Epic Games Store, Valve would keep approximately $8,991,464 - that's $1,930,557 more than on Steam.

At this revenue level, Epic's concrete platform fee would be $1,089,745. Epic charges 0% on the first $1 million in annual per-app revenue and then 12% on the remaining amount. On GOG (30% cut), the developer would earn approximately $7,056,847.

Note: This is a hypothetical comparison. Actual sales volumes differ significantly between platforms, and Steam's larger user base typically drives substantially higher sales.